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1 April 2020
PIA Economic Report For The Printing Industry
WARRENDALE—
The key economic question as we approach mid year is external risks abound the uncertain spread and impact of the coronavirus, supply chain disruptions from the virus, trade tensions, a price war on oil,the aging of the expansion. Our current economic dashboard signifies the chance of a recession in the economy in the next 12 months at 30 percent. At the same time the chance of a slowing but still growing sluggish scenario is 35 per cent. In total, the likelihood of a decline, no growth, or very slow growth is almost 70 percent.
As the likelihood of these two scenarios has increased, the odds of accelerated growth or even modest growth over the next 12 months have decreased to 10 per cent and 25 percent respectively. As of mid March the most likely path forward is the sluggish scenario combined with a quick recession which is just about baked in for the immediate future. First quarter growth will probably measure around 1 percent followed by a slight contraction of less than 1
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percent in the second quarter. Growth should resume by the third quarter. While this trajectory is probable,there is a broad range of outcomes given the volatility of the situation.So,what transpires with print markets in each of these scenarios? Most importantly, remember that when the economy goes up print goes up but at a lesser pace. In contrast, when the economy goes down print slumps at a bigger pace. As a result, print’s performance in the four scenarios ranges from a high of 2 percent growth to a low of 2 percent (or more) decline. For the full report go to www.printing.org
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